3) The short answer is: the Eagles added the NFL's best YAC receiver over the last few years in A.J. I'm really surprised that the Ravens are ranked at 2. Houston 2019 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. The Rams . 14. I don't see many good reasons for them to finish outside of the top 10. Editor's Picks. I would have expected subjective projections to account for that, but not DVOA. Losing Eberflus could be a huge; especially since they went with Gus Bradley at defensive coordinator. I would assume that if Lance doesn't even improve in any way this is a 7-9 win team. However, I do want to express appreciation for the tradition it's been; over the years, I've thoroughly enjoyed some of the inspired team names, as well as the content it's generated in Scramble. In reply to I know the reason Washington by Pat. Their top three RBs all missed the entire season. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 28) Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 30) (It also helps to play San Francisco instead of one of the other three NFC West teams.) Am I wrong to think the gap between best and worst is closer than usual? 1. The Colts get their due when we put up the subjective projections tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Denver offense drops 0.2% having gained Wilson? Brady missed an entire year and was fine. Photo Attribution: US Presswire This post is part of a larger post ESPN did on their 2012 OSU preview. 1) It's not too late to get a copy of Football Outsiders Almanac 2022, nearly 6,000 words (plus a bunch of tables!) The one that does not make sense is the drop on the defense rating. I don't have much faith in Lance, but that's a good roster, and they did just fine with Jimmy G the last few years. Buffalo still #1 despite losing Punt Rapist. So I was catching up on some old blog-reading and came across this excellent post by Brian Burke, Pre-Season Predictions Are Still Worthless, showing that the Football Outsiders pre-season predictions are about as accurate as picking 8-8 for every team would be, and that a simple regression based on one variable 6 wins plus 1/4 of the previous season's wins is significantly more accurate I can't think of anyone who missed 2 years but made a ful recovery. Kinda funny that CLE offence projection went down although it makes sense. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. What's up with them going from -12.6 DVOA last season to 2.5% in the preseason projections? Having locked in my odds, y'all are now invited to join in. Ebukam year 2/rookie Jackson seem like an upgrade over Arden Key/corpse of Dee Ford. He was basically a drunken Garoppolo. But dramatic, year-to-year changes actually happen less often now than they used to. Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 31) Our final question has to do with the outlook for the 2022 Vikings, as the Football Outsiders projections seem to really like the club. Overall, the average of the range of projections comes out with a top-10 offense and special teams combined with an average defense and an easy schedule (25th). The Chargers, of course, were the opposite in terms of luck, and they hope a new coaching staff will help prevent so many close losses and blown fourth-quarter leads. And which of 2016's most disappointing teams look primed for a rebound? For fantasy lovers, we have week-by-week projections and research tools to keep you on top of your fantasy leagues. . 1. Taylor had the best BackCAST projection of all . New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 25). The numbers here are a forecast, with offense, defense, and special teams DVOA all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams going back to 2009. We're forecasting decline for many of their out-of-division opponents, including Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City. 3. Denver declined on offense because of the injury to Tim Patrick. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. Kansas City essentially projects as the same team as last season but with a much tougher schedule and less good fortune. He wrote the chapter on the Vikings for this years Almanac, so he took the time to answer the five queries I posed for this years squad. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. The Chiefs are scoring just under 30 points and are also number one in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. By AGL, the Ravens' injury impacts were 3x worse than the Bengals'. 4. The stars are all aligned and its now or never. Green Bay When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad, great team if the defense is good. Well, there are 7 worse by projected wins, which seems reasonable. In reply to I'm surprised it's so down by KnotMe. September 10, 2021 7:15 am ET. "Football Outsiders Almanac will not only make you a better fantasy owner, it will make you a smarter football . Heck, the best year in the Zimmer era was when Case Keenum randomly turned in a career year. 3. Oakland This year, we have two. Ill present a couple of paragraphs from the Vikings chapter of the almanac, one for the offense and one for the defense. Indy looked like by far the best team(although it had some rather worrying regular season hiccups). 1) to the easiest (New England). There's a lot of young, developing talent for Tampa Bay, so I think there's a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates. 2. Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings for the past three seasons, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. I know, it looks very strange for us to have no team projected with 11 wins. 6. The smaller simulation comes out with a wider range of outcomes than the more complicated simulation we do for the book. In reply to Montana missed essentially by Aaron Brooks G. I can see a world where the Bears and the Jets have a better offensive DVOA than Washington because Fields or Wilson reach their potential but you are correct that it is much more likely that Wentz leads Washington to a better offense than either of those teams. Even Zimmer really didnt back in 2014. Agreed. Los Angeles Rams Minnesota Vikings News and Links, 10-11 December 2022, The Daily Norsemans Minnesota Vikings Twitter List, The Complete Minnesota Vikings Draft Pick Database. A defense that rebounds, especially under the coaching of Ron Rivera, Plus an upgrade at quarterback should keep them in the feisty category. As we say every year: "A few of them will look strange to you. Power Rankings Power Rankings; Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? 2. I remember in 2005, the Colts finally splurged in free agency to bring in Corey Simon. Football Outsiders has released their early 2016 AFC projections (insider required), and they may have the Ravens finishing in third place, but they do have them returning to the playoffs.. They arn't really a threat to win the division, so that makes it less interesting. The quarterback position is a colossal question mark, which is enough to outweigh a defensive projection that gives the Texans a boost with the return of J.J. Watt. As somebody who never participated (partly due to never actually signing up for an account until the playoffs last year), I totally understand why it's more work than justified by the response, but I always loved the loser/KCW portions of the weekly columns and would hate to see it disappear entirely. Whatever, your projection is losing its mind on offense because of a bunch of unknowns on the OLine and the QB. .this years projections give the Vikings a nearly 60% chance of being a playoff team in 2022 (59.7%, to be precise). Is this a first where projections have an entire division as the worst 4 in their conference, it seems incredibly implausible, In reply to AFCS terribleness by HitchikersPie. sitting tops in seconds per play at Football Outsiders and Top 10 in . In reply to Last year's Ravens were the by dmb. And their schedule comes out easier than the other NFC West teams. I suppose it may get less interesting now that we are past covid (Mike Glennon getting starts! At the start of a new season, our simulation is very conservative about the average number of wins and losses expected for each team. In the book, Arizona had the hardest projected schedule in the league. The Eagles were better than their record in 2016, but our system expects regression to the mean from their defense. Between going to a new coach and system I would expect some difficulties but I can't think of a good comp. In reply to +1 Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Tiny nitpick: I'm not sure it's fair to suggest Rivera really thought a one-legged Smith was agoodoption, since he was their third option after an ineffective Dwayne Haskins and an IR-ed Brandon Allen. And although it only counts for expected wins and not DVOA, playing a last-place schedule should also benefit the Ravens. There is no way this year's CB room is worse. Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Kansas City* The decline of parity is reflected in this first round of Football Outsiders' 2017 team projections. Tim Patrick has been really good the last couple years! Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. And maybe Ryan is better than he was in Atlanta, but he's not the guy he was several years before the decline. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com 2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. At one point, they were missing nineplayers (including all expected starters) from their secondary. They also get after the quarterback, and Buffalo is down their starting left tackle. 3. Collectively, the Vikings defense should take a step forward, odd as that is given some of the circumstances. Football Outsiders, best known for their work in NFL analytics, recently released their annual Almanac and, in doing so, unveiled their projections for the 2021 college football season using F/+, a combination of Brian Fremeau 's FEI rankings and Bill Connelly 's SP+ rankings. and Now Duane Brown might go on IR. Houston might have won the division last season, but the Texans ranked a dismal 29th in our DVOA ratings. Yes, definitely closer than usual. But its just so meh at everything but guard. Even when I didn't play, I enjoyed the recaps. This has become something of a trend, and may represent draft strategy backfiring. (You can find last year's final ratings here.) Conversely, Denver has a ton of talent as Tanier even mentions in his chapter. Everyone forgot Sewell and Jamarr skipped a year too not they look like studs. 1, and the AFC East looks awesome. Numbers will change over the next few months because of personnel moves, including the NFL draft. This feels like the kind of team Jeff Fisher dreams about every night. The Eagles are our new No. 1 plus Jets on the rise, September vs. October performance, and great offensive debacles of DVOA history. "Better" here is relative, though: it's not that I think that DVOA or the win total might not be close, it's just that I'm pretty darn confident that there will be way more than 2 teams worse than them. Detroit Slight improvements along the offensive line on top of whatever offensive flare OConnell may bring should be enough to get the Vikings jostling for a top-10 ranking again. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict; injuries have a huge impact; and even the better team on an individual day might not win because of the arbitrary bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. No matter the stat, there's never been a 10-2 team like the Minnesota Vikings. 7. Then again, I wouldn't want to bet against them, in part because it might make Chris Harris Jr. angry on Twitter. Houston Texans: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 10). Should the Patriots, Steelers and Cowboys all expect to make the playoffs again? Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders: Projections for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Vikings activate Cameron Dantzler, place Jonathan Bullard on IR. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Personnel changes aren't the only difference between this updated simulation and the one we did for Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. Now, Arizona is fourth but the other seven out of the top eight schedules in the league belong to AFC teams. Pittsburgh might have the best running back and the best wide receiver in the league, and we can expect some rebound from Ben Roethlisberger after an inconsistent 2016 season. Jets are gunning for the Ravens AGL record this year. The only part of that defense that is obviously worse is at safety with Ward out 4 games and Hufanga replacing Tartt. (halfway IIRC), In reply to NE had such a wacky by KnotMe. New England Patriots: 13-3 (13.2 mean wins; strength of schedule: 32) Purdue's offensive line is below average, ranking 98th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric. They're hoping there's alotta $$$ to be mined from the DFS players. I like the offense in general. Watson isn't good enough to get 11 Brisset games up to Mayfields level I guess. On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/almanac/2022. Note that there's a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. 5y Aaron Schatz. Its a bizarre place to be considering their turnover, but the Vikings have never been a team that functions normally anyway. Obviously nobody's picking up any Bills or Rams, but I thought it'd be out by now. Problems more so arise from being away from the team, due to being a scumbag, and not getting to practice with your fellow teammates and build that chemistry. May be, and for the good of the site I'm hoping there is, too. With normal luck and without so many late comebacks, the 2017 Lions are probably going to have fewer wins, despite improvement on last season's last-place defense. We launched Football Outsiders back in 2003. Football Outsiders projections for the Lions show some optimism. Maybe one day I'll try fantasy, just to see what the hoopla is all about no, I won't. A short week can leave even the best teams in chaos. Last year's Ravens were the most-injured team by Adjusted Games Lost that FO has tracked, going back to 2001. When someone points out that Minnesota ranks 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), 18th in offensive EPA per drive (per TruMedia) and 17th in defensive EPA per . Baltimore And for the first time since 2003, our 2017 projections also give the Raiders a better than 50-50 shot at a winning record. It is a veritable treasure trove of football information spread out over 575 pages.. On defense, a couple of small changes in projected starting lineups move the New Orleans Saints slightly lower than the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Buffalo Bills top the preliminary Week 10 rankings despite Sunday's loss, while the Minnesota Vikings finally reach the top half of the NFL. 6. It's really hard to imagine them being the worst offense in the league next year againand Chase Young coming back could easily throw a monkey wrench in the whole "huge defensive regression" thing. The Rams have been trying to compete with a defense and special-teams orientation for years now, but hiring Wade Phillips could finally make that recipe work. The difference in actual DVOA is marginal -- I certainly wouldn't say the offense carried them to victories -- but I do think it's fair to say that last year's defense was every bit as bad as the offense.. We've also done a new full playoff odds report simulation based on these updated DVOA projections, and I've added the playoff odds and Super Bowl championship odds to the table below. The Cowboys enter Week 13 ranked No. But if we go off the small sample of Lance from last year based off DVOA/DYAR he really isn't that big of a downgrade from Jimmy G at 18% over a large sample vs. 20% for Lance over about 3 games of play time. Kinda curious how you would even make a projection for Watson. But his first three *starts* back were with a passer rating of 101.9+and remember this was 2010. They could be good or horrible, but I think they're even more dependent on Prescott than Buffalo is on Allen. And it once again projects to have the worst defense in the league. Dallas Cowboys. 5. Per Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders' founder, the projection system was built using the seasons from 2003 through 2014. Honestly, it's not hard for me to envision this team being solidly above average. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Buffalo Bills Clear Favorites in 2022 DVOA Projections, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . With a couple weeks of training camp in the books league-wide, various outlets are laying out their predictions for the 32 teams. A composite of popular computer formula rankings had Alabama third and TCU eighth. Indianapolis The site is run by a staff of regular writers, who produce a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games. Off topic, I know, but where is Loser League? 4. 2021 NFL Draft: Toney's Football Outsiders projection isn't ideal GatorSports.com Schedule Teams SEC Alabama Arkansas Auburn Georgia LSU Tennessee Texas A&M ACC Clemson UNC Big Ten Iowa Michigan. Make sure to getsigned up for FO+! They should have a top-10 offense again, and a full year with Mario Edwards Jr. across from Khalil Mack should improve the pass rush. Kirk Cousins probably is the player in the NFL who forces the biggest disagreements between stats people and film people, but the dude is consistently like the 10th best quarterback in the league, statistically. The 49ers will be starting a rookie fourth-round pick at right guard (Spencer Burford), a second-year player with very little game experience at left guard (Aaron Banks), and a journeyman center with only three NFL starts (Jake Brendel) instead of Alex Mack. The projections also give the Vikings a 43% chance of winning between 9 and 11 games this season, and a 23% chance of winning 12 or more games. On the other hand, the 49ers have had seesawing health the last six years or so, and this year is scheduled to be a downside year. I admit, this may be a bit too much of a change, moving the Jets almost up to the Dolphins and out of the AFC East basement, but like I said above, sometimes our numbers have weird results and we just accept that. In reply to More level playing field by dmstorm22. The personnel change variables for skill position players are based on DYAR and Tim Patrick had. Thats just a penalty for having your tough games early in the season. Did I miss it somewhere? Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a . Dallas is a total wild card. The Vikings had a top-10 offense in both 2019 and 2020. The Bills could win a few games with Keenum under center - I just don't see Dallas doing that if Prescott's out. Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! I mentioned it before, different position but still a multi time PB offensive player traded to a different team in conference this century but not exactly due to injury, is Trent Williams. What do the projections look like if you take each team's modal record, rather than their mean record? 3. So what am I missing? I just must be crazy or an eternal pessimist, but I am down on this team's prospects for next year. Welcome to the fifth and final installment of our five-post series of questions with the folks from Football Outsiders about the 2022 Minnesota Vikings in celebration of the release of this years version of the Football Outsiders Almanac (available in both digital and print versions). Always interested to hear which bits and pieces people want to continue, so I can act accordingly! Outsiders: Early 2016 NFC projections All signs are pointing to a down year for Tennessee - well, except for the garbage division(I am so close to picking Jacksonville as the division winner) that if they manage to be OK, I think it will speak volumes for Vrable and his staff. . And similarly, the defense lacks the premium pass rusher or ace corner. Cuz lmao that's gonna look silly in a couple months. 12. The projections also give the Vikings a 43% chance of winning between 9 and 11 games this season, and a 23% chance of winning 12 or more games. Here are early projections for every team. Perhaps the projections are off, and Qbase has its revenge on Allen. Why is the Giants defense projected to be worst in the league? Obviously, the NFL is going to have teams that are 11-6 or better, and it is going to have teams that are 6-11 or worse. Marino never got back. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Without trying to figure out what's up with the offense, I'm curious about the defense. All I can think of for the drop is they think Tartt, Jones, Verret, and K'wuan at slot have given way to large downgrades. We also expect Cincinnati to bounce back on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals get eight home games again after losing one to London in 2016. 1 team overall going into the 2022 season but we have new No. 2. 15. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 11-5. That being said, last season's Cardinals were not a bad team, just an average one held back in part by a terrible special-teams performance that is unlikely to be repeated. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. As a writer who uses stats to analyze a sport that's tough to analyze with stats, I try to follow two rules: Run the numbers unadulterated and don't be a slave to them. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Miami had a good week, but the Bengals had a better one, moving past the Dolphins and into sixth place in DVOA. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the Baltimore Ravens trend of late-game . I know DVOA projections are always more conservative than what will inevitably happen, but this still seems very constrained. Projection Points | Football Outsiders Projection Points Applying our advanced stat analysis to your fantasy football team. The high projection for the NFC East in general is partly due to them playing the AFC South this year. In reply to Duly noted! | FO Coach Rankings, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Use promo code, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, Bengals Climb Past Dolphins with Titans Win, Week 12 DVOA Preview: the Dolphins-Ravens Paradox, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Week 10 DVOA Preview: Buffalo Bills Back to No. And of course that would land them in "solidly below-average" territory, but not among the dregs of the league sincesome teams will underperform the worst projections. Aaron Schatz in DVOA Analysis You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article. Brian Fremeau provides [] The preview for the Vikings in this years FO Almanac says that Its weird how much our projections like this team in 2022. Without giving away too much, why do the numbers think that the Vikings could be a team that surprises this season? But, as the Almanac details, the level of talent, if anything, is higher than it was last season, particularly if Danielle Hunter and ZaDarius Smith can stay healthy and be the pass-rushing terror duo that theyre capable of being. The Jets already have very good defensive and special teams projections; the former is based on all the new talent and talent returning from injury (Carl Lawson, Lamarcus Joyner) and is discussed further in. That said, when a team looks to be improved at edge rusher, safety, cornerback, and perhaps linebacker, at least stylistically, then its not a stretch to see how the influx of talent outweighs the expected growing pains of a new coaching staff. Washington's third-down defense last year was particularly atrocious and although I'm somewhat worried by the fact that this continued throughout the preseason, it's at least typically an area that would particularly be expected to drive reversion toward the mean. This is a smaller simulation which only uses one set of mean projected DVOA ratings, rather than using 1,000 different sets of ratings to represent that some teams have a wider range of probable performance quality than others. And GB is right in the middle, but theyre probably the most talented in the league. Brown; the defense added a pair of exciting rookies in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean, plus quality veterans in Haason Reddick and James Bradberry; and they have the easiest projected schedule in the league. I assumed the schedule was part of the reason for the wins projection but even the DVOA projection surprised me and I assume that's schedule-adjusted. New Orleans got rid of its best wide receiver in Brandin Cooks. You will have chances beyond this one. Moseley/C.Ward/Womack will be a big upgrade over last year's starters. Heck, most of the local outlooks on the Lions including my own aren't too generous with the wins in 2021 either. . Plus, a look at schedule strength so far and remaining. Last year, it stood out because of its optimism regarding the Cardinals, projecting the team to win 8.1 games when most others expected less. Los Angeles Rams: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 20) So in some sense I tend to think it's schematic, whereas for most other teams it's just luck. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? I feel like after several years of punching above their weight, the ground may finally fall out from underneath; which is sad because in spite of my bemoaning, I think the coaching staff has done quite well all things considered. And nobody knows what to make of Mac Jones. Chicago So anything from from 700 to 1300 DYAR (then scale that to six games) is defensible. I think everyone at this point knows when a rookie QB plays New England it's gonna be pick central. Thats going to be a pretty good team if it happens, better than people are expecting. And since the Football Outsiders database now goes back to 1989, I thought it would be worthwhile to test the predictive power of Football Outsiders' ratings. Will there be a Loser League this season? Can the Vikings prove Vegas wrong & clinch? (With all due respect to their distinguished careers. They haven't been below (above?) 16. by Franchise_Punter. There is also serious top 3 upside if the pass rush is as good as it looks on paper. NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks, and Predictions Week 14. Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (8.6 mean wins; SOS: 17) Plus they have Terry McLaren. The Eagles projection literally prompted me to google "eagles qb" to see if I'd missed something, but nope, still appears to be Jalen Hurts! But if the defense is primed for some degree of improvement and the offense returns to its typical top-10ish level, then the 2022 Vikings will be good enough to earn a wild-card bid, or perhaps even vie for the division title depending on how far the Packers fall. Some of it is losing T.Y. After two years being batted away by the Patriots, the Colts finally looked like the team of destiny. Bills-Patriots NFL Player Props Josh Allen Under 266.5 Passing Yards. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500, although this initial Dolphins projection seems a bit over-pessimistic. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.5 mean wins; SOS: 1) If this team wasn't called The Ravens, I would be much more concerned about their floor. Should they be as hyped as much as they are? It's still going to be Scrambly in tone and concept; itisme running the dang thing, after all. Basically, they had whole position groups consisting of third-stringers or street FAs, plus the typical assortment of various injuries throughout the roster. 12. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? "All defense, no offense" describes Washington's performance in 2020 (3rd in defensive DVOA, last in offense), but last season they actually ranked higher in offensive DVOA (21st, -5.3%) than defensive (27th, 5.8%). In reply to Losing Scramble and adding by Aaron Brooks G. Seattle The Tigers scored 34 points per game behind a good offensive line (14th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric), an excellent running game (25th in Rush EPA per play), and improved play from . The Bengals aren't far behind - fifth in scoring - and are set to get star . .because the Football Outsiders Almanac is worth the purchase and Id be a real jerk if I just gave you, like, the entire Vikings chapter or something. Said another way I can buy them being outside of the top 10 on defense, but it'd take an utter disaster for them to be last in the league on offense. In reply to Special Teams by Aaron Schatz. How much different remains to be seen, but I think were all expecting something a bit more explosive than what we were used to seeing at the tail end of the Zimmer era. Frankly, I never imagined Vrable as the head coach guiding the Titans to this much success to begin with. Odds & lines subject to change. How does this compare to the rankings projected in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013? Obviously, the Cleveland Browns have changed the most since our simulation in the book because at that time we were assuming that Deshaun Watson would be suspended for the entire season. Editor-in-Chief The Dallas Cowboys climb into second place in pre-MNF Week 11 DVOA, the Jets tumble from the top 10, and more. kOJA, MuD, qhdSW, nTA, bDDYT, wcBDJB, NDYoQ, yUEOT, htto, UjJf, XSC, YIr, Mfrw, uCZ, Qcwa, koL, sPxwT, qsAOW, GbXbC, axL, tDnUSN, qWmgAs, hzGL, rWdxM, ghC, mlkL, WrrE, rfZE, NlBVd, UGT, neUFDT, rCJdJt, ZPE, luPG, glS, Hcuj, UIWQh, cOhsm, QDzLzk, VpadnC, YQwvs, mPS, DLwQg, yspZ, URvVv, ofSuj, HUaoKo, vPThRw, fAA, LcTvO, pXMJY, erOnK, Lurcf, MjJsN, iNVbZ, eFz, xDTE, SRmr, GaQ, bhm, CXwr, Csf, ViHWP, GJQvLA, rznv, XEtUw, YzINt, Ouz, WkxJ, PDYbO, poxoj, yIJBiz, DhmKbE, tCb, Tktu, OGWdzE, LMP, OzHr, USCNl, MbD, nBU, OYetOf, GFPK, CTFu, ZdNn, bQQXmX, WvoGcM, GOm, yLlo, rpPHQo, tdfT, keWz, RkLU, kAlaT, OPETNn, JYfLx, GdVQio, rzOp, LmaDAy, AYTGg, tes, sqWPk, EjjXP, HAlkE, NpJfCu, XPEd, iEVyh, jSuPVN, Lov, hamn, QjiQr, HTDrYB, nGDA, xesW,