With five weeks remaining in the regular season, one division owns the top two spots in Dan Hanzus' NFL Power Rankings. chants for Tua at Hard Rock Stadium don't seem so far-fetched: eight starts, seven wins, 18 touchdown passes, three interceptions, 71 percent completion rate at a staggering 9.1 yards per attempt. -- Stephen Holder. -- Katherine Terrell. The latest NFL Standings by Division, Conference and League The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more. How much more patience can Arthur Smith have in Marcus Mariota? Trevor Lawrence elicited praise from Tony Romo on the CBS broadcast and continues to look more comfortable running the offense as the season progresses. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. To Jacksonville's credit, they kept the game from getting ugly after falling behind Kansas City 20-0 in the second quarter. Why not? But the back half of the season can be all about developing the rookie quarterback, who was unceremoniously inserted at halftime of the Week 4 loss to the Jets. The fourth-round pick -- a contender for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors -- did most of the heavy lifting in a 24-16 loss to the Giants, finishing with 122 scrimmage yards, including a game-high 44-yard run that set up Houstons only points of the first half. The final five games are no joke for the Cardinals, who fell to 4-8 on Sunday. The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse -- in points -- that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on . No matter how this season turns out, the Vikings and their fans will always cherish what happened on Sunday in Buffalo. They come in at No. All of those teams have a 4% shot to win it all. Realistic expectation: Developing Kenny Pickett. Those were the words of Raiders owner Mark Davis, per ESPN, when asked about the job security of first-year coach Josh McDaniels in the wake of an embarrassing loss to the chaos-drenched Colts at Allegiant Stadium. The Ravens have hit their stride by locking into a familiar identity: running the ball down your throat. Week 14 inactives: Who's in and who's out? Clyde Edwards-Helaire continued his disappearing act from the offense, playing just four snaps without a touch, while new acquisition Kadarius Toney scored his first NFL touchdown in a promising performance. But what is our Football Power Index? After Saturday's defeat at the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers, Florida football has dropped one more spot in ESPN's latest FPI rankings. He ranked 12th in Total QBR last season, and despite leading a postseason run, his QBR was still middle-of-the-road during the playoffs. But the mean expectation for Lance can't yet be great. There . NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF The Cowboys are 8-3. -- Turron Davenport. Sign up for the Rams Wire newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning. Mariota wasnt the only no-show for Atlanta, which was outplayed on offense, defense and special teams by a Carolina team that had trailed its opponent 42-0 in the third quarter just four days earlier. But it's not unthinkable that Cleveland could at least hang in the playoff picture. That's all I could say.". The Bills might have ended last season with a coin flip and heartbreak, but according to ESPN's Football Power Index, they enter the 2022 NFL season as the best team in football and the Super Bowl favorites. The Dolphins went up and down the field on the defense all afternoon, giving their punter the day off in a 39-17 blowout at Hard Rock Stadium. 37 nationally and as the No. The turnaround that coach Kliff Kingsbury talked about happening hasn't materialized and likely won't. Check out the full rundown, 1 to 32. The Broncos, who are last in the league and averaging 14.3 points per game, need to stop their current tumble. Winning one of two would put them into a pretty solid position. Full schedule | Standings | More . Underwhelming, to say the least, but Herbert is on an island right now. 2022 NFL Week 13 QB Power Rankings: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes up top; Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones on the rise Assessing every team's starting QB The goal has always been -- whether anyone connected to the Browns has said so or not (they haven't) -- to get to Deshaun Watson's Week 13 return in playoff contention. Ten wins is still a reasonable expectation, though it will require beating at least one good team (either the 49ers, Chiefs or Jets) in addition to taking care of business in the three games in which they'll likely be favored (Rams twice and Panthers). It sees strength on both sides of the ball, ranking Dallas fourth in offensive FPI rating and sixth in defensive FPI rating. Ratings and projections update daily. The Panthers are a long shot for sure, but they also were in 2014 when they won the last four games to win the division at 7-8-1. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Fields has yet to attempt more than 28 passes or throw for more than 208 yards in a game this season. -- Jeff Legwold. ago. Expecting to make the AFC playoffs might be too much for a team with a record of 4-7. Were not ready to say the Packers are "back," but the defibrillator pads have effectively returned a pulse to the reigning NFC North champs. This had to be a tremendously annoying game for Reich to be watching from his couch. -- our model forecasts a strong follow-up for the Cowboys. How far do the 49ers fall in the wake of Jimmy Garoppolo's season-ending injury? 2 pick; Eagles holding top-five selection via Saints. Baker Mayfield opened the season as the starter, only to . Fresno Drag Festival met with pushback and protest, Two die following collision with freight truck in Fresno Co., CHP says, Scuba diver's close call caught on camera. Tom Brady called Sundays 21-16 win over the Seahawks --the first NFL game ever played in Germany -- one of the best experiences of his 23-year career. -- Nick Wagoner. Meanwhile, the "M-V-P!" How far do the Vikings and Jets fall? -- John Keim. Green Bay Packers . Bengals. The Saints, meanwhile, get the Raiders, Vikings and Eagles in those same slots. Depth charts for every team ESPN's FPI was upgraded and modified this offseason. In this edition of the NFL Power Rankings, the Giants and Jets soar to new heights, while the Buccaneers and Panthers tumble down the board. Justin Fields was again electric, throwing for two scores and running for two others -- it was his second straight week with four total touchdowns. The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse in points that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field. The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. Check out the full pecking order, 1-32. "It's something that just can't happen. Like, it's bad. The Pats are about to enter the teeth of their schedule. 24 -- behind the Giants and Lions -- and carry just a 39% chance at making the playoffs. Player Rankings . That's why Baltimore has a 78.2% chance to win its first division title since 2019. It won't be easy, as four of their final five games are against teams with winning records -- the New York Giants (7-4) twice, San Francisco (7-4) and Dallas (8-3). ESPN's FPI rankings were developed in 2013 as a way to measure the overall strength of each . It was a warning not to write off the Packers, words backed up by actions in a 31-28 overtime win over the Cowboys at Lambeau Field. ESPN's NFL Football Power Index (FPI) rankings have officially been released ahead of the 2022 NFL season. While a best-case scenario has them winning out to finish with a winning season, a more realistic one has them getting more snaps for players like Trevor Penning, Rashid Shaheed and Alontae Taylor to get them ready for next season. Then again, they just lost to the previously three-win Raiders at home. The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance . The Chiefs' three opponents that their division-mates don't face are brutal matchups: Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Cincinnati. rushing offense, pass defense, etc.). -- Jenna Laine, The Chargers bolstered the roster over the offseason with the intention of making a deep postseason run. September 6, 2022 2:48 pm ET. Football Power Index rankings They have the best record in the league at 10-1, an MVP candidate in Jalen Hurts . -- Paul Gutierrez. Since offensive-minded Bruce Arians is no longer the team's head coach, the model assumes some regression on that side of the ball. "People in today's world want instant gratification," Davis added. His connection with Christian Kirk -- 105 yards, two touchdowns -- is one of the positive subplots of a developmental season. Our quarterback rating docks QBs who don't play, under the reasonable assumption that one way or another not playing is a bad sign (injury or just not being good enough). Chiefs (9-2; last week No. NFL Power Rankings, Week 3: Eagles fly into top three; Bengals fall out of top 10 Published: Sep 20, 2022 at 09:23 AM Dan Hanzus Around the NFL Writer Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10 Week 9. Cincinnati ranks fourth in the NFL in points per drive and offensive points per game -- despite the fact that WR Ja'Marr Chase has missed the past four games with a hip injury. Anything less would be considered a disappointment, with the question then becoming whether they can actually win it. Consider that the Chargers' opponents instead include the Falcons, Dolphins and Browns, while the Broncos get the Panthers, Jets and Ravens. The last five games could help determine that. The G-Men operate on a thin margin for error, and Barkley is their queen on the chess board. Williams reached New York's bye tied with Tennessee's Jeffery Simmons for the most pressures (35) among defensive tackles while pacing all DTs with seven sacks. 4 and No. And that's our best guess for Lance at this point. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. Something the Colts might also have to consider is whether they want to keep Matt Ryan on the roster next season to mentor another QB. Three wins in five games? 2022 NFL Enterprises LLC. The veteran quarterback delivered another dud on Thursday Night Football, showing poor accuracy and suspect decision-making in a 25-15 loss to the Panthers. Wilson again struggled to recognize pressure and get the ball out, but the embattled QB was in a nearly impossible situation with third-stringers playing at center and right tackle. But No. While Watt was getting up to speed, Najee Harris looked like a player who was finally getting on track. Rookie center Tyler Linderbaum was yet another draft hit by the organization, while Ronnie Stanley's return to health has brought stability to the blind side. The Florida Gators find themselves outside the top 25 in ESPN's Football Power Index rankings, coming in at No. But for those that actually watched the game and did not just focus on box scores, you realize the Lions . 2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings! 7 No. Who rounds out the top five? The Bengals had a bye week to further savor the long-awaited breakout performance from Joe Mixon, who set a franchise record with five touchdowns (to go along with 211 yards from scrimmage) in a blowout win over the Panthers in Week 9. Said Dennis Allen: "There's just a lot of different areas that we've got to improve on." Realistic expectation: Evaluate the roster for next season. Here are eight takeaways from the 2022 ratings -- and a detailed explanation of changes to the model -- starting with the league's best team. We previously used win totals paired with the schedule as a significant driver of preseason ratings, but betting markets are no longer in the model. Realistic expectation: Winning one, maybe two games. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 285 yards and three more touchdowns, and Jeff Wilson Jr. had 119 of the team's 195 rushing yards as Miami steamrolled a Cleveland defense that shut down Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 9. 2022 NFL FPI Rankings NFL on FOX Theme - Soundtrack Guru. A look at updated strength of schedule rankings for College Football Playoff contenders after conference . They beat both of last year's Super Bowl teams. The Colts, who upgraded at quarterback in trading for, The Cardinals looked like a strong contender last season before falling apart down the stretch, but they still have a solid roster and, The Ravens were derailed by injuries a year ago, but with a healthy. It's realistic even though the Bills are not looking as sharp since the team's bye. It's likely that the Commanders will have to go at least 2-3, so splitting with the Giants and winning one other game, especially vs. an NFC opponent for tiebreaker purposes. "It comes down to my shoulders and my shoulders only. Philly's first loss of the season included four turnovers and a crushing late-hit penalty against Brandon Graham, however unsatisfying the call might have been. Another stomach-punch loss, this one made worse because of how avoidable it felt. A frustrating loss, for sure, but the Eagles remain the top team in the NFC with an inside track to the No. They won at Minnesota. With the Patriots, Broncos, Bucs, Falcons and 49ers left, two of those seem winnable on paper after how this season has played out. So grasp onto your scepter tightly, Eagles. 2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings! Realistic expectation: Winning the AFC's top playoff seed. The Bills boast a high-end No. What we do know is that the gap has closed dramatically in the NFL's upper class. Realistic expectation: Getting to the Super Bowl. But here's the interesting part: Even though it believes they are the division's best team, ESPN's FPI actually doesn't favor the Chiefs to win the AFC West. They have a top defense. When it comes to ESPNs Football Power Index, only two teams rank higher than the Rams: the Bills and Packers. Atlanta is a half-game out of first place in the NFC South and faces one team with a winning record -- Baltimore -- the rest of the season. Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. That's a pretty big difference and a huge equalizer, even though the model believes Kansas City is the best team of the trio. The 31-30 victory over the Bears -- the Lions second straight after a five-game skid -- was especially encouraging because it was the struggling defense that really stepped up: Jeff Okudah pulled Detroit even with a dramatic pick-six in the fourth quarter, and a host of defenders swarmed a red-hot Justin Fields for the decisive sack on fourth down in the final minutes. Realistic expectation: Finding future contributors on this roster. While the scrappy Seahawks have clawed their way closer to the top of Dan Hanzus' NFL Power Rankings, the disappointing Raiders are in free fall. The defense remains a solid unit, and the offense is one of the best in the league. -- David Newton. Last Updated: November 29, 2022 The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. New England comes out of the bye with a rematch against the 6-3 Jets, followed by measuring-stick games against the 8-1 Vikings and 6-3 Bills. On top of that, the coaching staff has made questionable decisions with playcalling, game management and personnel -- most notably the decision not to use all timeouts prior to the end of regulation against Cleveland. 1 despite the unsightly nature of an island-game loss to the Commanders. Dont be surprised if both former first-round picks take snaps in Week 11. Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team's season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team's schedule. Weve simply seen too much evidence of ineptitude to be surprised when Russell Wilsons final pass sailed over the middle and was tipped into the hands of Titans cornerback Terrance Mitchell to clinch a 17-10 defeat. Defensively, the Cowboys are coming off an impressive season in which they ranked third in efficiency. Book the postseason. Rodgers threw three touchdown passes (all to previously scuffling rookie Christian Watson) and got much-needed help from running back Aaron Jones (138 yards) and backup safety Rudy Ford, who made the most of his opportunity with two crucial Dak Prescott interceptions in the first half. 1 we feel comfortable with. The Bucs face three solid teams that the Saints -- and the rest of the division -- don't see: the Chiefs, Packers and Cowboys. Colt McCoy proves his value at some point in every season. follow. After the game, Mike McCarthy -- his Lambeau homecoming effectively ruined -- stood by his decision to bypass a long field-goal attempt and go for it on fourth-and-3 in overtime. -- Adam Teicher. Our FPI also now includes predictive unit ratings that can be broken out into run and pass games (e.g. Add in Seattles struggles to get off the field (Tampa Bay converted 10 of 15 third downs) and you had the recipe for defeat. Realistic expectation: Split their final six games, win the NFC North and host two playoff games. The Commanders had a marvelous time ruining everything. With Cleveland at 3-6 with matchups against Josh Allen and Tom Brady on tap between now and then, it feels more probable that the Browns' postseason hopes will be kaput before Watson takes his first snap. That doesnt mean itll be easy for the Rams to win the NFC again, but ESPNs predictive model likes their odds. Since then, the Jaguars have won a total of eight. So even though the Bills are favorites to win the Super Bowl, why only 7%? During this offseason, ESPN Analytics executed an overhaul of the model, and a full description of changes and improvements can be found at the bottom. Parity remains a king in the NFL, making the Power Rankings an arduous undertaking. 28 overall and as the No. The Raiders, coming off two straight OT wins, seem to have rediscovered the lucky charm they had in closing last season with four straight wins to get into the playoffs. "The guy's coached nine games. The answer: A lot worse. -- Rich Cimini. 25 in ESPN's latest FPI rankings. And when it comes to Super Bowl chances, the Bills have a 7% chance to win it all, followed by the Rams who also have a 7% chance; decimal places likely separated the two. This is less about keeping the order and more about the lack of a new No. Winning another Super Bowl is also a realistic goal with QB Patrick Mahomes having an MVP-like season. The Bears should put all their efforts toward building for 2023. Skip to content Player Rankings. What is the pecking order at the quarter mark of the 2022 season? The Rams are expected to be 7.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, slightly ahead of the Chiefs, Bucs and Cowboys. They have scored fewer than 10 points in four games this season. ESPN's FPI is down on Justin Fields after a pretty brutal rookie season in which he finished with the worst QBR among qualifying quarterbacks in the league. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1). NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Get the latest fantasy football rankings at the NFL. In the latest installment of Dan Hanzus' NFL Power Rankings, the Jets soar into the top 10 while the Packers continue to plummet. The Eagles were overdue for a bad game, which is a fair classification of Monday night's 32-21 stumble to the Commanders at the Linc. The flip side of a lower probability for favorites to win the Super Bowl is that those percentage points have to go somewhere. ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN Therefore, those ratings and simulations determine the Jets' Super Bowl chances after the 4-0 start. Realistic expectation: Winning the NFC South. The Patriots are followed by the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers in the top five. Let's start by building a view for every team ranked by betting-market-implied probability , Super Bowl odds , PFF ELO ranking , ESPN FPI ranking , FiveThirtyEight ELO ranking (2021 . They have the best record in the league at 10-1, an MVP candidate in Jalen Hurts and a cold-weather-friendly offense that can suck the life out of you on the ground and rip it up through the air when need be. The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. -- Lindsey Thiry. September 27, 2022 11:34 am ET. Realistic expectation: Winning the AFC East. Throw in a first-quarter ankle injury to Jerry Jeudy that knocked him out of the game, and the recipe for another frustrating Sunday was in place. Why all the love? NFL stats and records, Week 10: Is Vikings WR Justin Jefferson off to best three-year start in history? 1 seed. See the latest NFL Standings by Division, Conference and League. Baltimore plays five straight games against teams with losing records before playing at the Bengals in the regular-season finale. More NFL coverage . Repeating as Super Bowl champions is difficult to do, but the Los Angeles Rams have a decent shot to do exactly that in 2022. 3 in the 2021 draft. 2): They sometimes made it look harder than it needs to be.3. Check out the changes at the very top, bottom and just about everywhere in between. Ryan Clark weighs in on Tom Brady and Buccaneers' underwhelming performance this season. Look at us now. And of course, the most important question, is there a new No. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. -- Brooke Pryor. Realistic expectation: Being in the playoff conversation entering Week 17. George Kittle was targeted just twice (one catch) and Deebo Samuel had just two receptions on six looks. Edge rusher Khalil Mack and receiver Allen Robinson II are both gone, and while there are still a few good players remaining in the defensive front -- including edge rusher Robert Quinn and linebacker Roquan Smith -- there isn't a whole lot other strengths on the Bears' roster. Add in a defensive front ravaged by injuries, and its a familiar refrain for the Chargers: Imagine if this team were healthy? Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. 2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings! Aaron Rodgers went on The Pat McAfee Show last week to remind the football world -- and perhaps, himself -- he is indeed the reigning back-to-back NFL MVP. It was the type of signature win against a Super Bowl favorite that gives the Vikings legitimacy beyond their stellar win-loss record. Their lowest-scoring team of the 16-game era (post-1978) was in 1992, when they scored 262 points, or 16.38 points per game. 1 is No. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The fifth-year QB ranks third in our predictive quarterback rating, behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers but ahead of Patrick Mahomes. The Niners haven't shied away from this being the objective, even going so far as to tell the world they believe they can when they traded for running back Christian McCaffrey. On paper, the 49ers should have a dominant offense if Jimmy Garoppolo can effectively distribute the ball to his cabal of talented teammates. Indeed, there is not. Projections-wise, our FPI rankings see a fairly even field, with the Bills at the top with a 7% chance to win Super Bowl LVII, followed closely by the Rams (7%), Packers (6%), Chiefs (6%) and Chargers (6%). The fourth-quarter charge led by Geno Smith was spirited, but the trip to Munich was ultimately an empty one for the previously soaring Seahawks. -- Eric Woodyard. The Indianapolis Colts are currently ranked eighth in the NFL in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the 2022 season. Kansas City Chiefs. Each team's FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). Fantasy Football Rankings (FantasyPros Experts) Consensus of 5 Experts - Sep 08, 2022. -- Jordan Raanan, Everything you need this week: They have won two of their past three, including an upset of Baltimore this past Sunday, and if they somehow go on a roll -- and that's asking a lot, since they play four playoff contenders -- they could even have a chance to finish 8-9 -- which would mark only the second time in the past 12 seasons that they didn't finish with double-digit losses. Full schedule | Standings The Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders won on Sunday, so how close are they to the top 10? Ratings and projections update daily. Huge turnovers made the difference, none bigger than Darrick Forrest's fumble recovery after a 50-yard gain by receiver Quez Watkins midway through the fourth quarter. Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL regular season. Realistic expectation: Dameon Pierce getting to 1,000 rushing yards. Despite getting upset by the Jaguars, the Ravens have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. "You want to learn to win in close games, you win in close games," Campbell said. All rights reserved. And this year, they move to the second and third tiers of teams. Colts were top ten in point differential last year so I can see them being high. Yes, the decision has been made to keep the humbled Eagles at No. We didnt quite get that in Sunday nights narrow win over the injury-ravaged Chargers. The pounding at the door grows louder. There's upside there, of course, and perhaps he stars in his first season as a starter. Tampa Bay converted 10 of 15 third downs against the Seahawks and scored touchdowns on both of their trips to the red zone. Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL regular season. Jones has yet to throw for more than one touchdown in a game this year and has been unable to eclipse a 90 passer rating in six tries (89.7 is the league-average rate through Week 10). The NFL hasnt had a repeat Super Bowl champion in nearly 20 years -- this Rams team doesnt appear capable of putting that streak in any jeopardy. It is realistic to think the Vikings will have a record of at least 12-5 (or better). It is a predictive rating. He is obviously a threat through the air and on the ground, and he's a big reason why the Bills edge the other 31 teams here. Did Jalen Hurts and Co. just run the Eagles back to the top of the NFL Power Rankings? Realistic expectation: Repeating as AFC champions. The Browns can afford only one more loss in their final six games, at most. Lamar Jackson -- as always -- remains the centerpiece of everything Baltimore does on offense, with a league-leading average of 7.4 yards per attempt on a team-leading 86 carries. Last Week: 29 Week 13 Result: Bye The quarterback situation for the Carolina Panthers in 2022 has been a merry-go-round of mediocrity. But if the Browns can avoid being mathematically eliminated in December, that would constitute a success at this point for a team that remains a long shot to make the postseason. Picks and predictions for the Army vs. Navy game as the college football schedule turns to Week 15 with updated betting lines and game odds. Sam Darnold, yet to play a snap this season after his own high ankle sprain led to a lengthy absence, will be the backup against the Ravens. 1 seed in the NFC (second only to the Packers). The Eagles lost because they couldn't keep the Commanders' offense off the field: Washington ran 34 more plays than Philly and possessed the ball for more than 40 minutes of game time. Both scoring tosses came from Ryan Tannehill, who was far from 100 percent after missing a week with a high ankle sprain, but still able to lead the offense on a pair of touchdown drives with Derrick Henry throttled by a stubborn Denver defense. One key change to point out: The preseason version of FPI has been untethered from betting markets, which previously were heavy drivers of the offseason model. Gone are the halcyon days of the Big Three; as Thanksgiving approaches, the league is as wide open as ever. After Saturday's loss to SEC East division rival Kentucky Wildcats, Florida football has dropped 13 spots in ESPN's latest FPI rankings. They have a running game that can control the tempo of a game. At 9-2, the Chiefs have the best record in the conference and a schedule conducive to holding on to their lead over the rest of the field. And if it is Lance, the model doesn't see how the 49ers could possibly justify a win total of 10 and be considered one of the better teams in the NFC. After a wild week highlighted by a series of improbable comebacks, Dan Hanzus has 30 teams on the move in his updated NFL Power Rankings. -- Michael Rothstein. They get a chance to show how good they can be with a Christmas Eve meeting against the Eagles. They have the third-best odds to win it all next season, behind only the Bills and Buccaneers two teams theyll face during the regular season. Dan Hanzus updates his NFL Power Rankings with a brand new team in the No. Realistic expectation: Winning a Super Bowl. The Seahawks take a narrow division lead into the bye before a Week 12 matchup against the moribund Raiders. Expect plenty of scrutiny on Mac Jones during this gauntlet: The second-year passer struggled against a stout Jets defense in Week 8, and its not hard to imagine more cries for underdog backup Bailey Zappe if Jones is unable to get it going in Foxborough on Sunday. Dan Hanzus provides the full rundown, 1 through 32, with the 49ers re-entering the top five. Realistic expectation: Winning the AFC South. The defense is playing well enough to keep Carolina in games if quarterback Sam Darnold can simply manage the offense without making catastrophic mistakes. While the passing game remains stuck in cement, Dameon Pierce continues to be the lone beacon of light in the Texans offense. Just six days after the dismissal of Frank Reich and stunning hire of Jeff Saturday, Indy threw another curveball with the surprise decision to bring Matt Ryan out of mothballs and send the overmatched Sam Ehlinger back to the bench. Cincinnati ranks 16th in FPI rating and has the 18th-best chance to win the Super Bowl at 3%. Peak Steve Young stuff. 14 in ESPN's FPI, so the model agrees it's a tight contest. Washington's ball-control offense was remarkable, possessing the football for over 40 minutes of game time despite averaging just 4.1 yards per play. Rank Player Salary ($) NFL Fantasy Experts; 1: Josh Allen QB - BUF--1: 2: Justin Herbert QB - LAC--2: 3: Lamar Jackson QB . -- Alaina Getzenberg. ESPN's FPI rankings were developed in 2013 as a way to measure the overall strength of each team and to predict . 10 team in the SEC. Therefore, in some estimates each team's rating will be higher than our best estimate, and in others it will be lower. But the FPI projections are not all that fond of Tampa Bay's chances this season, giving us a closer-than-expected race for the NFC South. Es El Repollo! Only one of Carolina's last five opponents has a winning record, and the Panthers already have beaten two of them (Tampa Bay, New Orleans). After last year's 12-5 season ended unceremoniously in a wild-card loss to the 49ers -- who could forget the spike that wasn't? -- Sarah Barshop. ESPN's FPI rankings were developed in 2013 as a way to measure the overall strength of each team and to predict results as the season goes on. Of course all of that could change in the next 5 weeks, but this is the Week 13 power rankings and those are the facts at this point. -- DJ Bien-Aime, Ryan Clark: Bucs in 'inexcusable position' following loss to Browns (1:12), NFL Power Rankings: Setting realistic rest-of-season expectations for all 32 teams, Huntley hurt as Ravens again lose a starting QB, Steelers' Pickett put in concussion protocol in loss, Jets star DT Williams exits loss with calf injury, Bengals win despite missing Boyd (finger), Higgins, Sources: Saints, coaches, Jordan fined $500K+, Tucker becomes Ravens' career scoring leader, Source: James out for banged-up Bolts vs. Fins, Patrick Mahomes' unreal no-look toss leads to 56-yard touchdown by Jerick McKinnon, NFL Week 14 takeaways: Lions roll, Eagles overpower Giants, Dallas avoids mega upset, Lions first-rounder Jameson Williams scores 41-yard TD on first NFL catch, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes show out; more notable NFL Week 14 arrivals. Still, Mariota cant have too much rope after his recent struggles. Are the Lions putting it together? Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were both again sidelined by injuries, and Los Angeles also played without either of its starting tackles on the offensive line. Detroit has not won six games since 2018. pic.twitter.com/9oDRKm8nKR. Their Week 15 showdown could end up deciding the division, although Miami does have two more division games in Weeks 16 and 17. Cincinnati Bengals. Realistic expectation: Representing the NFC in Super Bowl LVII. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. Realistic expectation: Making the postseason. If that continues, he won't hit 1,000 yards. Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: All you need to know to win in Week 14, From 'Mr. Rittenberg: Predicting bowl scores Draft This isnt the most exciting football in the league, but the Steelers are just happy to get back to winning. Why? The Buccaneers are in a firm lead for the best in the division. -- Josh Weinfuss. It should help that four of their final six are at Lumen Field. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete. Its not a stretch to say Pierce is the offense. ESPN's FPI makes the Bucs just a 43% favorite to win the division, with the Saints fairly close behind at 32%. -- Mike Reiss. Check out Dan Hanzus' full league pecking order, 1 to 32. ESPN's FPI, for now, is assuming that it's Trey Lance under center. 9 SEC team on the list. Now, let's take a look at the updated rankings. The First Read, Week 11: NFC contenders, pretenders; plus, Josh Allen's turnover troubles, Gut-wrenching loss to Vikings raises host of questions about Bills, Jeff Saturday brings passion back to Matt Ryan, Colts in debut as interim coach, 2023 NFL Draft order: Raiders in line for No. The model also now dynamically updates to reflect the current degree of home-field advantage. Check out the full league pecking order, 1-32. There is no reason to fear any of the heavy hitters in the NFC. Detroit Lions climb in ESPN's 2022 NFL FPI Rankings. The Chiefs, last year's top team going in, were at 19% in the 2021 preseason. 1): They sometimes make it look so much easier than it is.2. That came before signing Von Miller this offseason, which will only help the cause. Miami Dolphins. This will not be a fun team to play as the weather turns cold. These next three weeks will go a long way toward determining just how possible winning it all will be for Buffalo. Fields now leads all QBs with 749 rushing yards and has 25 carries of at least 10 yards, the third-most of any player in the league. The rise of the Jets can be traced back to a defense that has grown up fast. His fourth-quarter pick-six was a reminder that the second-year QB remains a work in progress as a passer, but we've seen significant gains in that department, as well. ESPN's FPI likes the Buccaneers, as they rank No. Dallas also has two solid wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, though we're working under the assumption of a healthy Gallup. "Rome was not built in a day." The reigning Defensive Player of the Year didnt fill up the box score on Sunday against the Saints, but he drew plenty of attention and created opportunities for teammates in a 20-10 win. Realistic expectation: Getting to six victories. The Lions might not finish at .500 this year, but they do have an opportunity to double their win total from 3-13-1 in 2021 to at least six wins this season, which is a big improvement as they continue to take steps toward their rebuild. Realistic expectation: Finishing above .500. ESPN's Seth Walder described the process as a rating that "indicates approximately how much better or worse in points that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field. The Dolphins are in the driver's seat to win their first division title since 2008, and right now, they're playing better than the Bills -- against whom they currently own a tiebreaker. Don't forget to check out the NFL Power Rankings Podcast with Dan Hanzus and Colleen Wolfe. It doesn't sound like a lofty goal, but that would be the most games the franchise has won in a season since 2019. The Bills blew a three-score lead in the second half by making the type of head-scratching, self-inflicted errors that have suddenly become commonplace. The game prediction model considers each of those unit ratings and factors in how frequently an offense passes above or below expectation given a game situation. How much worse can the Rams offense be without Matthew Stafford? It's a big jump, fueled by the fact that Garoppolo has posted decent QBRs throughout his career -- which is a lot better than what the model assumes the 49ers will get from Lance in 2022 on average. That doesn't mean they can't. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs and an above-average offensive line, and they led the league in defensive efficiency last season. The Giants already lost to Seattle but have two games in a three-week stretch against Washington. This is the second consecutive year the Colts have fallen short of their own preseason expectations. Realistic expectation: Going to the Super Bowl. NOTE: Up/down arrows below reflect team movement from the Week 10 Power Rankings. ESPN's FPI rankings were developed in 2013 as a way to measure the overall strength of each . 2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings! The result? NFL Football Power Index 2022. Securing home-field advantage in the playoffs will be a priority. In short, we upgraded our process to better account for the variance between teams' expected ability and what their actual ability turns out to be. In fact, they are the highest-rated team that FPI believes has a better chance to win the Super Bowl (6%) than their odds at Caesars Sportsbook (18-1) indicate. Does any team have a higher ceiling than the red-hot 49ers? This is a 23-year-old who has put the league on notice. The schedule does Tannehill and his bum ankle no favors: The Titans are back on the field again on Thursday for a road matchup against the Packers. 10 team in the SEC. New episodes every Tuesday all season long. After all, San Francisco paid a steep price to trade up and select Lance at No. The Colts are the most unpredictable show on television. Ultimately, our FPI model gives Cincinnati only the third-best chance to win a closely-contested AFC North at 24%, behind Cleveland (35%) and Baltimore (32%). Much of the ground-game success can be traced back to a thriving offensive line that keeps getting better. Fans in western New York aren't going to like hearing it, but the Dolphins have placed themselves in position to win the division, and it's what they should expect moving forward. These can be considered baby steps for an offense that remains more pedestrian than expected, but you get the feeling that Brady and the Bucs are starting to find their way as they hit their bye week. 2022 NFL season, Week 10: What We Learned from Sunday's games, McCarthy to chuck his headset into the turf, the best experiences of his 23-year career, knocked off the previously undefeated Eagles. The Rams are expected to be 7.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, slightly ahead of the Chiefs, Bucs and Cowboys. In the past two games against the Commanders and Dolphins, Pierce has totaled 16 yards. Instead, preseason ratings are determined through a combination of past team performance, our predictive EPA/play metric for all starting and backup quarterbacks, and a predictive rating for non-QB starters based on an ensemble of several player ratings, including Pro Football Reference's approximate value and our own win rates for offensive and defensive linemen. ESPN's FPI never bought in on the Bengals last season, and even with a model reboot in 2022, it still is awfully skeptical of them. It's not a shock to see the Bills at the top of the rankings, considering the team's performance last season. It's entirely possible to get into the postseason with nine wins in the NFC, but splitting the final six would get the Giants to a healthy 10 wins -- and complete a wildly overachieving season. Copyright: ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. After Saturday's upset win over the defending Pac-12 champion Utah Utes, Florida football finds itself at No. Realistic expectation: Making the playoffs. The drumbeat will begin to grow louder for the return of Jameis Winston, though it's hard to say how much of a difference the quarterback can make behind a beat-up offensive line. Therefore, the Bears' goal of creating a sustainable offense for their future franchise quarterback needs to be the focal point the rest of the way. Buffalo Bills. The Cowboys' quarterback has demonstrated a high level of performance in the past -- he finished fourth in QBR in both 2017 and 2019 -- and remains in the prime of his career. Wondering where the 49ers would rank ifJimmy Garoppolowere to return as the starter in 2022? How high do the 2-0 Eagles fly? Problem is, the Bolts never are. With first place in the NFC South still conceivably within reach, Smith is hesitant to turn the season over to third-round rookie Desmond Ridder. Realistic expectation: Getting to 10 wins. Mixon entered the big day as one of the leagues least efficient runners: According to Next Gen Stats, Mixon rushed for 54 yards below expectation through the first eight weeks of the season the third-worst figure of any running back with at least 50 carries. Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL regular season -- we are now two-thirds of the way through. They come in at No. Although they got off to a rough 1-6 start, lately the Lions have been among the hottest teams in the league, winning three of their past four games. They closed the year looking like the best team in football, and quarterback Josh Allen had one of the greatest games of all time in Buffalo's 47-17 playoff victory over the Patriots. It certainly helped Ryan that the offensive line played its best game of the year and Jonathan Taylor suddenly looked like his 2021 superstar self again. Realistic expectation: Focusing on Justin Fields' development. That gives a more realistic simulation overall, as well as more realistic projections based on a certain scenario. In terms of average FPI rating of its opponents, no team has a rougher 17-game slate in front of it than the Kansas City. That group could include running back Kyren Williams and the group of wide receivers behind the injured Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson II: Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek and Brandon Powell. The model still isn't all the way in on quarterback Joe Burrow. It might be time to take a step back and reevaluate where this roster is heading into 2023. See where your team stands and strategize your next move for your league. Pierce is on pace to rush for nearly 1,500 yards and has added 22 catches and a touchdown in the passing game. That goal has largely been derailed because of an overwhelming number of injuries that have resulted in edge rusher Joey Bosa, cornerback J.C. Jackson, left tackle Rashawn Slater and defensive lineman Austin Johnson being placed on injured reserve. At 3-8, the Rams' focus can be on figuring out whether some of these players can play a bigger role next season. . says: December 6, 2022 at 11:55 am Five weeks into the 2022 NFL season, Dan Hanzus' Power Rankings experience a grand reshuffling, with 28 of 32 teams on the move. Thus, there are plenty of other teams that could end up better than Buffalo -- and of course, every team still has to manage at least three postseason wins to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, no matter how good they are on paper. Cowboys (8-3; No. Davis' public statement of patience is surely appreciated. The rematch on Christmas Eve in Dallas should be fun. How will Patriots' Mac Jones handle Cardinals' blitz on MNF? -- Jake Trotter. Whether they can knock off a team like the Kansas City Chiefs is a different issue, but realistically, this team has everything it needs to at least be in the big game. -- Courtney Cronin, Get exclusive access to more than 3,000 premium articles a year from top writers. The defense is opportunistic and leads the league in takeaways (23). Please check your email for a confirmation. The changes won't stop there, considering their apparent needs and the lack of production they are getting from an offensive line that is the NFL's most expensive. The ESPN FPI indicates how much better or worse that team is predicted to be relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field. It's shaping up to be a three-team race between them, the Commanders and the Seahawks. John Wolford couldnt get anything going in place of Stafford (concussion protocol), and the Los Angeles defense was unable to produce a game-swinging play to pick things up on the other side of the ball. The heart of the unit is Quinnen Williams, who has anchored the team's relentless front four with All-Pro level play. Offense, and particularly passing offense, is the most important part of team construction, so in the model's mind, an elite passing team will always beat out an elite rushing, rush defense or pass defense team, all else being equal. The long answer is it depends on the quarterback. McCoy wasnt spectacular, but he was steady -- running an efficient offensive attack that produced five scoring drives but fewer than 300 total yards. Wyshynski: Ranking NHL's best lines We've got a brutally close race for the favorite to be the No. The Commanders also play Cleveland (4-7) -- Washington is 6-1 vs. teams currently under .500. Buffalo leads ESPN's FPI preseason ratings -- which were released on Tuesday -- and is about a half-point clear of Green Bay, the model's No. The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse in points that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field. It sucks this way even more. Horrendous second half," Allen said. The Commanders hold the seventh spot, which is remarkable considering they were 1-4 after five games this season. https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2022/05/18/rams-nfl-rankings-espn-fpi-2022/, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Their lowest-scoring (non-strike year) team in history scored 196 points; that's 14 points per game in a 14-game AFL season. More ESPN+ content . In 2022, he made the leap to bona fide Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Even then, they might need help elsewhere from a loaded AFC. In addition to our updated rankings, we checked in with NFL Nation reporters across the league and asked them what the expectations for the rest of the season are for each team entering December. 11 team in the SEC. Pierce has 788 yards rushing so far this season. Plus, changes at the very top and very bottom. Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas has a 45% chance to win the NFC East, along with a 16% shot to be the No. They are also the No. It's not the immediate group of favorites, but rather the collection of squads that can win it all if player development, luck and injuries break right for them. Plus, the Falcons still have games against the Saints (Week 15) and Bucs (Week 18), which could spell the difference between being NFC South champs and out of the playoffs. ESPN's FPI never bought in on the Bengals last season, and even with a model reboot in 2022, it still is awfully skeptical of them. -- Ben Baby. The worst thing you can say about the state of the Broncos is how doomed the operation felt even with Denver in the red zone in the final minute on Sunday with a chance to tie the game. -- Michael DiRocco, Simulate your own scenarios and check the latest playoff picture. But as we saw from Buffalo last season, it doesn't end with Allen. The rating . Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. --but there continues to be reason for optimism around the Bears in what should be remembered as an important transition season for the franchise. Realistic expectation: Winning the AFC North. 1 spot -- and that's only the beginning of this week's hierarchical upheaval. Find current or past season NFL standings by team. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdown passes, and the running game came to life with 155 yards, including a game-high 82 from Isiah Pacheco. September 12, 2022 4:40 pm ET. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs for his career, throwing three touchdowns and five interceptions. Winning the division is in jeopardy after slipping one game below .500 and holding just a half-game lead over the Falcons. They have a passing game that has improved. The Saints mathematically have a shot at the NFC South like everyone else, but they've squandered every opportunity they've gotten to make any progress in the division by beating themselves with poor play. Our power panel -- a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities -- has evaluated how teams are stacking up through 13 weeks. The Cardinals didnt commit a turnover and generally looked like a more functional operation despite the perfunctory penalty avalanche (10 more infractions worth 67 yards). The Giants continue to drive through their best player -- the NFLs leading rusher and Comeback Player of the Year favorite -- Saquon Barkley. The bigger question is how far the Ravens can advance in the postseason. Christian McCaffrey had four catches on six targets in the passing game, but was out-touched in the running game by Elijah Mitchell, who had 18 carries for 89 yards in his first action since Week 1. P.J. Taking a look at the rest of the NFC South's total FPI outlook, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are ranked 5th, the Carolina Panthers are 25th, and the Atlanta Falcons are ranked 29th. The Steelers aren't making the playoffs this year. 2022 Season; Draft Rankings; 1 - 40 of 40 . The Titans will be a dangerous team if they can find balance on offense. 45 nationally and as the No. Smith and the offense struggled to find rhythm before two late scoring drives, and the defense came down to Earth with a thud after a month of excellent play. It won't be easy, especially with four of the remaining six on the road, but the Jets are 4-1 on the road this season, and defense travels. Against Carolina, Mixon rushed for 74 yards above expectation. CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND Even though the AFC North is in a down year, that's the reality they face after starting 4-7. This one's going to suck, watching it.". The fourth-round rookie is averaging 71 yards a game, but recently defenses have centered their game plan on stopping him. 2. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete. "Losing sucks. Per FPI ratings, the Bears have a 14% chance to pick first next April, followed by the Jets (14%), Texans (11%), Jaguars (9%) and Falcons (9%). We were reminded of that again on Sunday in Pittsburgh, where New Orleans struggled to run the football, make dynamic plays in the passing game or avoid self-inflicted errors in a 20-10 loss to the Steelers. It is our predictive model that includes ratings and projections for every NFL team, from how good they are on defense to what their chances are of winning their division. Tennessee's passing game is starting to come alive, but the rushing attack hasn't been the same over the past three weeks. (10-2, 6-2 SEC) concluded its 2022 regular season in Week 13. Get the guy some help. Three challenging opponents, in showdowns that will take place across the span of just 12 days. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine provided a massive lift to Todd Downings scuffling passing attack, hauling in five receptions for 119 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-10 win over the Broncos. In this edition of the Power Rankings, Dan Hanzus has a brand new team in the top five. 5 in the model's rating system and are just 0.2 and 0.3 points per game behind the Chiefs and Rams, respectively. 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